Baku’s city streets have provided plenty of thrills over its five seasons of Formula 1 Grand Prix. The inaugural race in Azerbaijan’s capital in 2016 was not as dramatic as hoped, especially after the chaos in the GP2 races that weekend.
There has yet to be a repeat winner of the streets of Baku, with the odds of a sixth different winner in as many races being quite high.
2017 and 2018 provided classic moments that are fondly remembered such as Ricciardo’s triple overtake, Hamilton and Vettel banging wheels or Grosjean’s safety car mishap.
2019’s crucial moment came in qualifying, where Charles Leclerc, who had looked the hot favourite for pole position, crashed entering the castle section in Q2, condemning him to 10th on the grid.
Leclerc did put that pole stat right in 2021, assisted a little by a late Q3 red flag but it was Sergio Perez who benefitted and survived the drama of the closing stages as first Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton fell by the way side, allowing the Mexican to score his first Red Bull win.
And it is off the back of his second triumph for the Milton Keynes based team that he returns to the Land of Fire, very much in the title hunt.
Baku is a tough circuit to set the car up for.
Do you favour the low-speed, 90-degree corners and the castle section with lots of downforce or aim to maximise your straight-line potential, with the long run from turn 16 to turn 1 a crucial section for both lap time and overtaking?
But the teams must also factor in the varying levels of grip around the circuit, with the tall buildings casting shadows across the circuit, while other areas may still be bathed in sunlight.
It is quite the conundrum facing the teams and consequently, it makes predicting the outcome quite a task!
Ferrari, after bungling their Monaco strategy, need to put a stop to four Red Bull wins in a row, while championship leader Max Verstappen will want to get himself ahead of Perez having lagged a little behind in Monaco.
The title battle is hotting up very nicely indeed with Perez joining the fight and heading to a circuit where he has regularly performed well. He has picked up three podiums in Baku, including 2021’s victory.
Something that would stoke the championship fires further would be a maiden win for Carlos Sainz, thrusting him somewhat back into the conversation for the world championship.
As in 2017 and, too some extent, 2021, Baku can also throw up a surprise winner. Mercedes, if their car allows, could capitalise through chaos.
Alpine emerged from the carnage in Hungary to win with Ocon last year, what could they do on a circuit that, given 2022 form, could play to their strengths? I would not put it past Fernando Alonso to be the man on the scene this time if the opportunity arises.
In short, just about anything could happen in Baku this weekend.
Pole Winner – Sergio Perez
The Baku circuit shares many characteristics with Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah Corniche track, where Perez took his only F1 pole earlier this year.
Considering Perez got the 2016 Force India onto the front row, before a grid penalty dropped him back, there is the very real chance that Checo can spring a surprise again in 2022.
In 2021, he was pretty much on or just behind Verstappen’s pace through the weekend, in a car his driving style didn’t match with perfectly.
Fast-forward 12 months and the RB18 works neatly with Perez’s style, which is more compliant with an understeering tendency.
The Red Bull itself should be a good match to the layout with its low-downforce operational window potentially the way to go.
If Perez really is going to be in the title fight after his Monaco win, the perfect way to back that up would be with pole position in Baku.
Race Winner – Sergio Perez
Providing Perez has the form across the weekend, I see no normal reason why he couldn’t convert a pole into the win.
He is likely to have the car, he has the speed and the composure, but most importantly, has the confidence of a race win and security of his future in the last two weeks.
Perhaps if Perez doesn’t win this weekend, we should stand applaud the driver who does?
Race Podium
1st – Sergio Perez
2nd – Max Verstappen
3rd - Charles Leclerc
Bold Predictions
1. Ocon and Alonso get into Q3
2. Minimum three drivers fail to finish the Grand Prix.
3. At least one red flag in Qualifying